We have grown more skeptical of consensus world-view and foresee a greater probability of a painful correction in oil prices in the near term.Read More
Bullish OPEC and EIA Inventory Data in October completely reverse in November.
We see no reason to change our recommended long-volatility positioning, given uncertain policy implications following the US election, and our assessment of no better than equal probability for OPEC action at the end of November.
The oil-price trend is down. The momentum of recovery from lows in January to a peak in June has been broken by the resurgence of macroeconomic-related fears, and the emergence of fundamental data suggesting high refinery utilization rates may have overestimated end demand, resulting in unseasonable refined product inventory builds (gasoline).Read More
Remember the Thai Baht in 1998? In the same way, the impact of Brexit on oil prices is not just about the direct, economic impact of potentially reduced physical oil demand from the UK, or even the EU.Read More
The upward trend in current oil pricing has not yet been confirmed by a majority of our milestones. Thus, we still prefer non-directional, long volatility investments for liquid traders and cautious, positive yielding (free cash flow supported) underlying assets for private equity, credit and industry buyers.Read More